The Impact of Trump’s Inauguration on American Foreign Policy, the Rise of BRICS, and their Implications for Global Peace – By Dr. Umar Osabo

 

“Upon taking office, Trump’s foreign policy stance has to reflect his historical scepticism of multilateralism and alliances. His “America First” doctrine may be interpreted as a signal of isolationism, influencing how the U.S. engages with global crises, and redefining alliances that have existed under previous administrations”

*US President Donald Trump

PEGASUS REPORTERS, LAGOS | JANUARY 22, 2025

Donald Trump’s potential inauguration on January 20, 2025, presents a unique landscape of opportunities and challenges, not only for the United States but for the world at large. This analysis delves into critical issues surrounding Trump’s campaign promises, executive orders, foreign policymaking, and the implications of the burgeoning BRICS alliance.

*Evaluating Trump’s Campaign Strategies for 2024

Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency in 2024 employs a blend of strategies that echo his previous bid but also adapt to the current political environment. Central to his platform are themes of nationalism, economic protectionism, and a distinctive pivot away from traditional foreign policy frameworks. His campaign rhetoric emphasizes “America First,” promising to prioritize the interests of American citizens above international obligations.

*A Reaffirmation of Populist Policies

Trump’s consistency in populist policies remains a defining characteristic of his approach. The shift in voters’ sentiment towards protectionism and scepticism of international engagements has reinforced his appeal. Vowing to tackle issues such as immigration, trade, and job creation resonates profoundly with his base, many of whom feel overlooked by the political elite. In leveraging these themes, Trump seeks to galvanize support from disenchanted voters in battleground states crucial for electoral success.

*The Influence of Social Media

Moreover, Trump’s campaign utilizes social media as a critical tool for engagement and messaging. By circumventing traditional media, Trump has controlled the narrative and maintained a direct dialogue with his supporters. This strategy not only reinforces his populist appeal but also enables him to react rapidly to political developments and media narratives, a necessity in today’s fast-paced political arena.

*Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on January 20, 2025. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / POOL / AFP) Related content

*The January 2025 Inauguration: A New Executive Agenda

Trump’s inauguration on the 20th of January, 2025 has marked a significant turning point for American governance and international relations. Some of the executive orders released from day one of his inauguration are:

  • Executive Order Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship,
  • Executive Order Protecting the American People Against Invasion,
  • Executive Order Securing Our Borders,
  • Executive Order Declaring a National Emergency at the Southern Border,
  • Executive Order Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats,
  • Executive Order Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists,
  • Executive Order Guaranteeing the States’ Protections Against Invasion and;
  • Executive Order Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government among others.

*Ex-US President Joe Biden

*Reversing Biden’s Policies

As expected, Trump has swiftly reversed many of President Joe Biden’s executive orders, especially in areas such as climate policy, healthcare, and immigration. This has included withdrawing the U.S. from international agreements that Biden has rejoined, such as the Paris Climate Accords, which Trump previously exited, citing economic concerns.

Some of the Executive Orders and policies Biden revoked by Trump on 20 January 2025 are:

Executive Order 13985 of January 20, 2021 (Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government).

Executive Order 13986 of January 20, 2021 (Ensuring a Lawful and Accurate Enumeration and Apportionment according to the Decennial Census).

Executive Order 13987 of January 20, 2021 (Organizing and mobilizing the United States Government To Provide a Unified and Effective Response To Combat COVID-19 among many others were revoked.

*US President Donald Trump walks by Elon Musk during the America First Policy Institute gala in Palm Beach, Florida, on November 14. Photo: Reuters

Domestic Implications of Executive Orders

Trump’s planned executive actions will create immediate ripple effects across various sectors. For instance, revitalizing fossil fuel production, dismantling regulatory frameworks around environmental protections, and enacting strict immigration enforcement policies could lead to economic upheaval and protests from environmental and immigrant rights groups.

*American Foreign Policy: A Shift towards Isolationism

Upon taking office, Trump’s foreign policy stance has to reflect his historical scepticism of multilateralism and alliances. His “America First” doctrine may be interpreted as a signal of isolationism, influencing how the U.S. engages with global crises, and redefining alliances that have existed under previous administrations.

* Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader

*Assessing the Impact of Conflicts in Palestine and Ukraine

Trump’s approach to international conflicts will garner significant attention. His historical ambiguity regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Ukraine war suggests that his administration may either pursue isolationist policies or, paradoxically, revive direct negotiations.

*Palestine: A Potential Shift Towards Pragmatism

While in office previously, Trump’s administration recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital—an act that polarized diplomatic relations. Moving forward, his victory in 2024 polls, may take a more pragmatic approach to the peace process. This could involve proposing peace initiatives that align more closely with Israeli interests and deemphasizing Palestinian statehood in favour of economic investments.

*Russian President, Vladimir Putin haunted by his country’s invasion of Ukraine?

*Ukraine: A Controversial Stance

In terms of Ukraine, Trump’s relationship with Russia is especially noteworthy. His administration’s past approach favoured dialogue over confrontation, a sentiment that some analysts believe could lead to a negotiated settlement or cessation of hostilities. However, Trump’s foreign policy will likely face heightened scrutiny, with critics warning that any perceived leniency towards Russia could embolden aggression.

*The BRICS Alliance: An Emerging Global Challenge

As Trump reestablishes his position in American foreign policy, the role of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) looms large in the context of global power dynamics. The BRICS coalition, which presents itself as an alternative to Western-dominated institutions, represents a counterbalance to American unilateralism.

BRICS members who attended the plenary in 2024

*The Rise of BRICS

The BRICS nations have increasingly coordinated their policies and amplified their influence on the global stage. Their motivations, driven by shared interests such as economic development, political sovereignty, and the desire to curtail Western dominance, create a formidable challenge to U.S. hegemony.

*Economic Implications for U.S. Policy

Trump’s return to office, and how he responds to BRICS will shape not only American trade policy but also its geopolitical strategies. A potential pivot towards protectionism could inadvertently push BRICS nations closer together, accelerating moves toward a multi-polar world order. This could alter global trade dynamics and reduce American influence in international negotiations.

NATO Countries

*The Ideological Framework of Trump’s Presidency

Understanding Trump’s ideological framework requires an examination of his brand of nationalism, which intertwines with sentiments of economic populism and scepticism of traditional alliances. This ideology invariably impacts his governance style, affecting both domestic policy and international relations.

*Nationalism and Global Engagement

Trump’s nationalism positions him at odds with global governance frameworks, suggesting a potential retreat from participation in international organizations such as the United Nations and NATO. His supporters often view these entities as shackles, rather than platforms for cooperation, fueling his calls for renegotiating treaties that he perceives as unfavorable to U.S. interests.

In this photo released by Japan Air Self Defense Force, U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers, top, fly with a Japan Air Self Defense Force F-2 fighter jet over Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, just south of the Korean Peninsula, during a Japan-U.S. joint exercise Sunday, July 30, 2017. Japan’s Defense Ministry reported the U.S. supersonic bombers flown from the Anderson Air Force Base in Guam conducted a joint exercise with the South Korean Air Force over the Korean Peninsula later in the day. The U.S. Pacific Air Forces said in a statement that the mission was a response to consecutive intercontinental ballistic missile tests by North Korea this month. (Japan Air Self-Defense Force via AP)

*Implications for American Democracy Engagement

This nationalist ethos invites profound questions regarding democratic engagement beyond borders. Historically, the U.S. has promoted democracy and human rights globally. A shift in this approach under Trump’s leadership could embolden authoritarian regimes and reduce support for democratic movements worldwide.

*Projections and Forecasts: The Road Ahead

As Trump’s presidency unfolds, several potential trajectories will shape not only American foreign policy but also global peace and stability.

*A Fractured Global System

Trump’s foreign policy, characterized by unilateralism and a transactional approach, could lead to a fragmented global system. Nations dissatisfied with American leadership may gravitate towards BRICS, further consolidating the alliance and potentially leading to a confrontation of interests.

*Sustainability and Environmental Implications

His administration’s rollback on environmental initiatives may also cripple efforts towards sustainable development amid accelerating climate change—a global challenge that transcends borders and requires collective action.

*Nuclear Warheads

*Future Wars and Diplomatic Ventures

The outcomes of conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Palestine rest heavily on U.S. engagement. If Trump favours isolation, prolonged instability may ensue, while proactive engagement in diplomacy could pave pathways for negotiation and the subsequent peace pact.

*Conclusion: The Imperative for Global Cooperation

As Donald Trump sets the stage for his return to the presidency, the ramifications of his policies—both domestically and internationally—are daunting. His ideological foundations will pose challenges not only for American democracy but also for global peace and stability in an increasingly multipolar world.

*Dr. Umar Osabo

The dynamics of U.S.-BRICS relations will redefine international cooperation and engagement, and navigating this landscape will demand adaptability and insightful policymaking. Future administrations must learn from the complexities of past engagements to facilitate a world where peace is not just a goal but a collective journey.

In this intricate geopolitical landscape, the choices made in the wake of Trump’s potential inauguration will resonate for generations, underscoring the weight of leadership in global affairs—a heavy mantle that rests on the shoulders of those who seek to navigate the turbulent waters of our times.

Follow Dr Umar Osabo on Pegasus Reporters

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